Tundra 2.5 Market Update and Speculation

Hey all, question for you. Trying to gauge what’s happening to the prices and values of our gen 2.5’s now that the 22 is out.

8 months ago I sold my 2018 CM Limited for exactly what I paid 3 years and 36k prior. I now have an 8mo old 2021 1794, if I sell it now I can pocket probably $4-5k.

What should we expect prices to do? Rise because people want the v8 and there’s no more new available? Fall because of gas prices and that the new 2022 is out?

options:
1- sell my 2021 now for $4-5k more than I paid? Drive something else for 6 months until the bugs of the 2022 are worked out?
2- sell my 2021 now and buy a 2022?
3- hold on to my 2021 and risk prices falling and have to pay to walk away from it a year from now?

Thanks for your advice!

 

There is zero way to predict the market right now. Good luck.

 

Forget about making a couple thousand dollars...

What are your truck ownership objectives?

 

I should have clarified. It’s not about making a few thousand dollars; it’s about not being upside down in a truck that get poor fuel economy and is potentially dropping at a rate that puts me further upside down when I can easily get out of it now. All things created equal I can get into a 22 at the same price as my 21 and probably hold value more. However then I’m stuck with a first year and all it’s gremlins.

As for truck goals, it’s a do everything rig. Family, towing, trips, camping, commuting, etc.

It sounds odd, and queue the “you know what you were getting into” comments. It’s the first time I’ve had to look at fuel prices and decide to fly or take a different vehicle. With the 22 and increased fuel economy I’d just simply drive the truck in these scenarios.

 

New vehicle prices are going to stay high, IMHO. Did you over pay for your 21?

 

See the parts I bolded. The first point I disagree with you. They are not equal. They are two different trucks with the same name.
The second point I bolded what percentage does commuting make up ? Answer that and I can give you my opinion.
For the third point (re: mileage) I suggest you look at these threads.

https://www.tundras.com/threads/pol...se-post-comments-on-real-world-mileage.99876/

https://www.tundras.com/threads/tundra-v8-better-mpg.105935/

fwiw
I have been told by dealer Sales managers that as long as l keep the mileage low on my truck (2018) right now I am driving with "0" depreciation.
We know no one knows how long this situation is going to last.
The Toyota North American Sales Exec said the current new vehicle supply chain situation is going into 2023.
Hope this helps.

 

How about paying the damn thing off and never worrying about being “upside down”?

Weird times now for sure, but let’s be realistic. It is a mass produced vehicle with high O&M costs. It will continue to depreciate over the years as you pump thousands of dollars of gas into it (you accepted the poor MPG when you bought it) and spend additional thousands on insurance and maintenance. If you need or even just want the truck and can afford it, keep it.

 

It’s going to be more than six months before all the bugs get fixed! They may know what is the problem but they are not getting the parts to fix them. This stuff is now going to last much long than first thought!!! It is going to get worse before it gets better!!!

 

If you have a long daily commute where fuel costs are that burdensome with the Tundra, then you need to ask yourself if you are driving the right vehicle. My wife has a commute ~23 miles each way and drives a hybrid RAV4. She gets about 40 mpg.

 

THIS !

 

If you like the truck, Keep it. It is as simple as that.
As a general rule automobiles always depreciate. Also like luvcrvs said. "Pay it off"

If you are waiting, thinking they will fix all the bugs on the '22, you will need to wait a few years. Ie '24 at earliest. It is going to take Toyota that long to capture the issues, develop replacements, then implement them into a production line.

 

You will save $$$ on gas with the 22 because it will be in the shop and you will be going camping in a Corolla.

 

Seriously, keep what you got if it fits your needs.

 

the "greenest" thing you can do is keep a vehicle more than 10 years.

scrapping a car & having to re-make a new car uses tremendous energy.


pay it off.

enjoy it for what it is.


supercharge it.

If you lose your way, visit these forums. the folks here are truly pros at helping you spend some serious $.

 

I agree heartily with everyone saying to pay it off and enjoy it. You do that, and you’re invincible to vehicle market forces for the next 10-15 years. View the difference in the fuel bill between your truck and a 3rd gen (which is a smaller difference than I think any of us were anticipating) as a smal insurance premium that keeps you from having to go back to the dealer.

Two other things come to mind:

1. No previous version of any Toyota truck or SUV has ever tanked in value due to the release of a newer generation. Look at older 4Runners, Tacomas, Sequoias, Tundras, and Land Cruisers. What first gen Tundras have always sold for is insane.

2. You drive the most well-built gas-engine full-size truck ever made for the North American market. Every owner who puts insanely high miles on their 2nd gen Tundra (say 400k all the way up to 1M) has said the secret is basic maintenance. Will you drive that much? Most likely not. But 2nd gen Tundras have always commanded a resale premium because of their insanely long dependability potential.

The 3rd gen will probably be a great truck. But you get a meager bump in fuel economy for wildly higher overall complexity and release issues that are not ironed out yet. I’m sure a few 3rd gen guys will chime in and say “come on in; the water’s fine,” but it’s too early to tell.

I’ve always thought that the guys who flip vehicles and try to time the market don’t make nearly enough money on trades for all the stress that goes along with market speculation.

 

Well said.

 

Keeping payments going for several more years will cancel out a 2-4 mpg advantages. I come down on the same side as others. Paying a truck off and freeing several hundred in the budget for gas is the best move.

You could trade to chase mpgs and find out you’re one of the 19mpg people or one of the 15-17 mpg people depending on your unique road conditions or driving style. Depends on how much boost you use. I Would feel pretty dumb trading trucks and only to find out I’m averaging 16 on my ‘22.

 

As others have pointed out, the real world mpg net in upgrading to a Gen3 isn't as much as was anticipated. I'd keep what you've got unless you just have to have the latest and greatest (I'd probably switch brands though if you're gonna swap vehicles like square dance partners).

 

for those with gen 3 Tundras....

does adding rotating mass (larger wheels) move MPG more or less than doing so on the 5.7?

I can't get my head around the impact of the turbos spooling to turn the mass.

will it be better or worse?

 

The more often you buy/sell the more likely you’ll be under water. Unless your paying cash when buying and profit from each sale-which is highly unlikely.

 

Spinning wheel - what goes up must come down....

https://youtu.be/kK62tfoCmuQ

 

I'm sorry I was mistaken much worse:
"Thank you, and mpg isn’t the greatest. City driving I get about 11-13. Highway 13-14. Have drove both a decent amount but mostly highway around 14"

https://www.reddit.com/r/ToyotaTundra/comments/t5fmlm/comment/hz4kt4o/?context=3

 

well...that sux.

ain't any better than us legacy Tundra's

 

That's...pretty terrible. Of course I fully realize that a gearing change would help, just like it would with 5.7's.

 

Yeah that is a great point. It is 37s with stock gears.

 

Thanks everyone. I was overthinking it. Terndrerrr - you get the gold star and bring up a great point regarding all of these trucks holding their value.

I agree with all of you that it’s probably far longer than I was thinking to work out the kinks in the 22.

I think I have my answer, I’m keeping the truck and enjoying it. Just put the thought of ditching it behind me. Though the cost of money is so cheap it still makes sense to use someone else’s money.

One thing that struck me as odd is all the comments about expecting and accepting being upside down. If you don't need to be with a bit of planning it makes sense (to me) to just not be upside down. Informed speculation is an easy way to do that. Over the last year it’s been a good time to shift vehicles. Well Toyota vehicles that is.

Thanks again everyone!

 

The classiest thing you could do is keep the thing until you are old. Keep it clean, be modest with your modifications and in 30 years, you'll have almost every Tom, Dick and Harry asking to buy it from you. Seen this from my old neighbor Jerry, God rest his soul. He had a cherry 1977 Ford single cab pickup, 4x4, modest lift and clean all-terrain tires, The interior was immaculate and he drove it with his beloved wife every Saturday morning to get coffee and McD's. All kinds of weird dudes would stop by his house and ask him to sell it, looking for a quick easy build. He always laughed and told them there wasn't a price they could offer for him to sell. I always was impressed with his character. He was a genuine Man from a long-lost era.

 

Billy Sole, you can’t leave us at the cliffhanger. What ever happened to Jerry’s truck? I think we all have one of those vehicles we sold and will regret till death. Other than Jerry! We need more Jerry’s.

 

Oh yes. I believe that his wife sold his truck about a year after he passed. They were a sweet old couple and I believe that she sold it because she was downsizing to move into an assisted living home. Their children couldn't take her in. I was in the Navy at the time, living across the street from Jerry and I had to transfer after four years. I sure miss visiting them and talking to ol' Jerry. But he used to laugh at every offer he turned down on the truck. Him and his wife were awesome.

 

Love that story, other than the point when the truck left the family. Thanks for sharing, made my day.